So what the heck has happened with LK-99 really? (Disclaimer: I'm no physicist nor chemist, but I have co-written a report on three LK-99 papers [1] and am tracking the Twitter discussion as much as I can. I also got some help from knowledgable friends---much thanks for proof-reading.)
It turned out that LK folks were not talking about some stupid shit. Specifically they were one of the last believers of long-forgotten Russian theory of superconductivity, pioneered by Nikolay Bogolyubov. The accepted theory is entirely based on Cooper pairs, but this theory suggests that a sufficient constraint on electrons may allow superconductivity without actual Cooper pairs. This requires carefully positioned point defects in the crystalline structure, which contemporary scientists consider unlikely and such mode of SC was never formally categorized unlike type-I and type-II SC. Professor Tong-seek Chair (최동식) represented a regret about this status quo (in 90s, but still applies today) that this theory was largely forgotten without the proper assessment after the fall of USSR. It was also a very interesting twist that Iris Alexandria, "that Russian catgirl chemist", had an advisor who was a physicist-cum-biochemist studied this theory and as a result were so familiar with the theory that they were able to tell if replications follow the theoretical prediction.
Fast forward to today, students of the late Chair continued the research and produced a possible superconducting substance---LK-99---based on the Russian theory. A lot can be said about papers themselves, but it should be first noted that this substance is not a strict superconductor in the current theory. Prof. Chair once suggested that we need to trade off some (less desirable) properties of superconductors for room-temperature superconductivity, and that property seems to be isotropy. This particularly weakens the Meissner effect criterion due to the much reduced Eddy current, so there is a possibility that LK-99, even when it's real, might not be accepted as a superconductor in the traditional sense. LK folks on the other hand think they should be also considered a superconductor, but they are probably already aware of this possibility.
If we allow anisotropy in this discussion, we do have lots of such things already, most importantly carbon nanotubes. Scientists even thought about the possibility that they may function as typical superconductors [2], without any success though. So it might be appropriate to say that LK-99 is a substance that mimics them in one direction, but much more malleable. And that is an actually significant result (if true, of course) because for most uses a strict type-I superconductor is far more than sufficient, while implications of superconductivity are more achievable. We so far looked for strict superconductors only because we didn't know the effective way to trigger superconductivity otherwise; LK-99 might change that situation.
This whole discourse should make you more careful to conclude whether LK-99 is a superconductor or not, because we may well end up with a revised definition of SC as a result. If LK-99 makes superconductivity much easier to trigger it should be considered a superconductor in the macroscopic sense, authors would argue. Only the time will tell if they indeed made such a substance and it would be malleable enough to be substitutes for other superconductors, but they have a long history and arguably received unfair treatments. And they are about to fight back.
Yes. The CPU and GPU demand has nothing to do with it. The reason is the car industry.
For some reason in early 2020 all the car industry execs were convinced that people would buy dramatically fewer cars in 2020, due to pandemic crashing demand. Because they have a religious aversion to holding any stock they decided to shift the risk over to their suppliers, fucking said suppliers over, as the car industry normally does when they expect demand shifts. The thing that made this particular time special as opposed to business as usual is that the car execs all got it wrong, because people bought way more cars due to pandemic rather than less, due to moving out of cities and avoiding public transit. So they fucked over their suppliers a second time by demanding all those orders back.
Now, suppose you're a supplier of some sort of motor driver or power conversion chip (PMIC) in early 2020. You run 200 wafers per month through a fab running some early 2000s process. Half your yearly revenue is a customized part for a particular auto vendor. That vendor calls you up and tells you that they will not be paying you for any parts this year, and you can figure out what to do with them. You can't afford to run your production at half the revenue, so you're screwed. You call up your fab and ask if you can get out of that contract and pay a penalty for doing so, and you reduce your fab order to 100 wafers per month, so you can at least serve your other customers. The fab is annoyed but they put out an announcement that a slot is free, and another vendor making a PMIC for computer motherboards buys it, because they can use the extra capacity and expect increased demand for computers. So far so normal. One vendor screwed, but they'll manage, one fab slightly annoyed that they had to reduce throughput a tiny bit while they find a new buyer.
Then a few months later the car manufacturer calls you again and asks for their orders back, and more on top. You tell them to fuck off, because you can no longer manufacture it this year. They tell you they will pay literally anything because their production lines can't run without it because (for religious reasons) they have zero inventory buffers. So what do you do? You call up your fab and they say they can't help you, that slot is already gone. So you ask them to change which mask they use for the wafers you already have reserved, and instead of making your usual non-automotive products, you only make the customized chip for the automotive market. And then, because they screwed you over so badly, and you already lost lots of money and had to lay off staff due to the carmaker, you charge them 6x to 8x the price. All your other customers are now screwed, but you still come out barely ahead. Now, of course the customer not only asked for their old orders back, but more. So you call up all the other customers of the fab you use and ask them if they're willing to trade their fab slots for money. Some do, causing a shortage of whatever they make as well. Repeat this same story for literally every chipmaker that makes anything used by a car. This was the situation in January 2021. Then, several major fabs were destroyed (several in Texas, when the big freeze killed the air pumps keeping the cleanrooms sterile, and the water pipes in the walls of the buildings burst and contaminated other facilities, and one in Japan due to a fire) making the already bad problem worse. So there are several mechanisms that make part availability poor here:
1. The part you want is used in cars. Car manufacturers have locked in the following year or so of production, and "any amount extra you can make in that time" for a multiple of the normal price. Either you can't get the parts at all or you'll be paying a massive premium.
2. The part you want is not used in cars, but is made by someone who makes other parts on the same process that are used in cars. Your part has been deprioritized and will not be manufactured for months. Meanwhile stock runs out and those who hold any stock massively raise prices.
3. The part you want is not used in cars, and the manufacturer doesn't supply the car industry, but uses a process used by someone who does. Car IC suppliers have bought out their fab slots, so the part will not be manufactured for months.
4. The part you want is not used in cars, and doesn't share a process with parts that are. However, it's on the BOM of a popular product that uses such parts, and the manufacturer has seen what the market looks like and is stocking up for months ahead. Distributor inventory is therefore zero and new stock gets snapped up as soon as it shows up because a single missing part means you can't produce your product.
So here we are. Shameless plug - email me if you are screwed by this and need help getting your product re-engineered to the new reality. There's a handful of manufacturers, usually obscure companies in mainland China that only really sell to the internal market, that are much less affected. Some have drop-in replacement parts for things that are out of stock, others have functionally similar parts that can be used with minor design adaptation. I've been doing that kind of redesign work for customers this whole year. Don't email me if you work in/for the car industry. You guys poisoned the well for all of us so deal with it yourselves.
